Barron’s (March 6)
“The Nasdaq Composite closed in correction territory as Wall Street sold pretty much everything in response to the Trump administration’s latest tariff rhetoric.” Both the S&P 500 and the Dow also dropped amid a tariff saga that has left investors shaking. “The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff plans have caused headaches for market participants. There are also fears among some economists that policy uncertainty will send sentiment falling further until it triggers a recession.”
Tags: Correction territory, Dow, Economists, Fears, Headaches, Investors, Market participants, Nasdaq, Recession, S&P 500, Sentiment, Sold, Tariff, Trump, Uncertainty, Wall Street
Bloomberg (March 4)
A roller coaster day left the S&P 500 Index ”at its lowest level since Nov. 4, the day before Trump was elected…. The dizzying ride provided a preview of the difficulties facing investors, who now must figure out how to price American assets in what essentially amounts to a new world order created by Trump’s tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico.” The volatility and steep decline are “a comeuppance for those on Wall Street who bet big on Donald Trump’s election win, trades that powered the equity market higher along with the dollar and Treasury yields. The bet that Trump wouldn’t do anything to disturb the stock market rally has, for now, been lost.”
Tags: Assets, Canada, China, Comeuppance, Dizzying, Dollar, Investors, Mexico, New world order, S&P 500, Stock market, Tariffs, Treasury yields, Trump, Volatility, Wall Street
New York Times (January 28)
“Stock futures are looking up after Monday’s markets blood bath, as investors take stock of what the Chinese start-up DeepSeek really means for the artificial intelligence business.” Many questions remain, but “the emerging consensus is that DeepSeek… has upended the race for A.I. supremacy. Apple and Meta might end up being better positioned than initially thought, while Nvidia might not be in a disastrous position.”
Tags: AI, Apple, Blood bath, Consensus, DeepSeek, Investors, Markets, Meta, Nvidia, Start-up, Stock futures, Supremacy, Upended
Institutional Investor (January 28)
“With Trump once again using tariffs as a key tool in his trade policy, investors are bracing for renewed volatility,” especially given the “frantic pace of changes.” Some investors, however, “remain optimistic about Trump’s potential economic impact.” For example, “KKR’s Henry McVey believes that strong markets and robust corporate earnings will offset any geopolitical risks and tensions.”
Tags: Corporate earnings. Geopolitical risks, Economic impact, Frantic, Investors, KKR, Markets, McVey, Optimistic, Tariffs, Tensions, Tool, Trade policy, Trump, Volatility
Motley Fool (January 21)
“While Wall Street has been given plenty of reason to be excited about President Donald Trump’s second term, he’s also making ominous stock market history—and it should have investors concerned.” Prior to his inauguration, the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E was at 38.11, marking “the highest reading for an incoming president dating back to January 1871,” the earliest comparable data point. During that same 154-year timeframe, the average Shiller P/E was 17.19. “Inheriting one of the priciest stock markets in history might pave the way for a bear market or short-lived crash during his second term.”
Tags: 1871, Bear market, Crash, Inauguration, Investors, Ominous, Priciest, S&P 500, Second term, Shiller P/E, Stock market, Trump
Barron’s (December 23)
Brazil ends 2024 in a paradox. The economy is strong with GDP expected to “reach 3% for the third year running. Unemployment is at a record low and the trade surplus at an all-time high.” Nevertheless, “markets are awful.” Investors appear to be “looking past the healthy present to a recurrence of Brazil’s chronic economic disease: excessive government spending that spurs runaway inflation and crowds out growth with debt payments.”
Tags: 2024, Brazil, Chronic, Debt payments, Economy, GDP, Government spending, Growth, Investors, Markets, Paradox, Recurrence, Runaway inflation, Trade surplus, Unemployment
Barron’s (December 16)
“Investors betting on future interest rate moves expect the Fed to cut rates a quarter-point, ending 2024 with a federal-funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%.” That not something bond investors like. They are increasingly “shunning long-term Treasuries,” with the yield on 10-year Treasuries moving beyond the “20-day moving average of 4.293% on Thursday,” before “topping 4.4% during intraday trading on Friday.”
Tags: 10-year Treasuries, 4, 4.293%, Bond investors, Fed, Federal-funds rate, Future, Interest rate, Intraday trading, Investors, Shunning, Yield
Institutional Investor (December 16)
“A cross examination of forecasts from asset managers shows that artificial intelligence will be front and center for investors…. Putting geopolitics and economic forecasting to one side for a second,” AI is the “one thematic priority that sticks out.” Artificial intelligence is “being touted as a structural game changer for all industries the likes of which we haven’t seen since the invention of the internet, massively improving efficiency and productivity for those that are able to effectively harness it.”
Tags: AI, Asset managers, Cross examination, Economic forecasting, Efficiency, Forecasts, Game changer, Geopolitics, Internet, Investors, Productivity
The Economist (December 11)
“Since America elected Donald Trump as president on November 5th, the value of its listed firms has increased by $4.2trn, more than the entire worth of London’s stockmarket. The S&P 500 is up by nearly 30% this year. At 23 times its forward earnings, the index has rarely been so highly rated by investors.”
Tags: $4.2trn, 23x, Forward earnings, Index, Investors, Listed firms, London, President, S&P 500, Stockmarket, Trump, U.S., Value
New York Times (November 27)
“The inflation risk stalking the markets eased over the summer,” but is now “front and center again as investors contend with a Trumponomics crackdown on immigration, a rising trade-war risk and a potential bonanza of tax cuts.” Trump’s “latest trade threats show how uncertain the outlook could be”. Since he vowed “to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico…analysts have been gaming out the potential impact.” It could be an opening gambit of little consequence, but “economists fear that it could add bottlenecks and costs to supply chains and reignite inflation, and that it could scramble the Fed’s policy on interest rates.”
Tags: Bottlenecks, Canada, China, Costs, Crackdown, Fed, Immigration, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Markets, Mexico, Risk, Supply chains, Tariffs, Tax cuts, Trade war, Trumponomics, Uncertain
