Fortune (August 27)
“Investors are underestimating the inflation risk of President Trump’s tariffs, which will push up import costs,” concludes analyst Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank. “One indicator forecasts that U.S. inflation may soon exceed 4%. Consumers are also expecting higher prices. But the inflation swaps market has yet to reflect these risks.”
Tags: 4%, Allen, Analyst, Consumers, Deutsche Bank, Forecasts, Higher prices, Import costs, Indicator, Inflation, Investors, Risk, Trump’s tariffs, U.S., Underestimating
New York Times (August 25)
The Chinese “housing downturn has not delivered the devastating shock that the United States suffered in the 2008 financial crisis, but it has been hanging over the economy for five years with no end in sight.” Prices for new and secondhand homes continue to fall. “The continuing property market slide comes at a vulnerable moment for the Chinese economy. A trade war has limited China’s ability to rev up its export engine, while consumer spending remains soft. The government is plowing money into semiconductors, robotics and other technologies, but those investments are unlikely to pay off quickly enough to fill the hole left by a shrinking property sector.”
Tags: 2008 financial crisis, China, Consumer spending, Devastating, Downturn, Economy, Export engine, Home prices, Housing, Property market, Semiconductors, Trade war, U.S., Vulnerable
Wall Street Journal (August 24)
“Not long ago it would have been hard to imagine a Republican President demanding government ownership in a private company, but here we are. And now the Trump Administration is toying with a tax on patents too—meaning, a tax on innovation.” Very bizarrely, to compete with China, “the U.S. is imitating its model of state-run business. Washington is becoming Chinatown” as, disturbingly, “corporate statism is riding high.”
Tags: China, Chinatown, Compete, corporate statism, Government ownership, Imitating, Innovation, Patents, Private company, Republican, State-run, Tax, Trump, U.S., Washington
Fortune (August 19)
“The U.S. Federal Reserve’s looming decision on whether to cut interest rates in September 2025 is sparking heightened concern on Wall Street, as strategists at Bank of America (BofA) Securities draw unsettling parallels to the months preceding the 2007–08 financial crisis” in a note entitled “Ghosts of 2007.”
Tags: BofA, Concern, Cut, Fed, Financial Crisis, Interest rates, Looming. Decision, Parallels, September, Strategists, U.S., Unsettling, Wall Street
Wall Street Journal (August 18)
“The global economy appears to have taken a sharp rise in U.S. tariffs and increased uncertainty about the future of the international trading system in its stride, but faces stronger headwinds as tax rates continue to climb.” Many countries chose not to retaliate. “Forgoing retaliation may count as a series of losses for them and a sequence of wins for the U.S. But those choices are also wins for the global economy, and for now a return to the tit-for-tat mayhem of the 1930s seems unlikely.” The tariffs have nevertheless been detrimental, “but it will take some time before the impact of tariff increases that are already settled is clear, and it is likely that further increases in duties will add to the damage.”
Tags: 1930s, Climb, Damage, Duties, Global economy, Headwinds, Impact, International trading system, Mayhem, Retaliate, Tariffs, Tax rates, Tit-for-tat, U.S., Uncertainty
USA Today (August 16)
“President Donald Trump’s aggressive economic policies will likely significantly slow U.S. growth and push up inflation but stop short of causing a recession or “stagflation” – the dire scenarios that forecasters envisioned before he took office.” Economist Justin Begley of Moody’s Analytics believes the U.S. is edging toward stagflation, but will not end up there. Much will depend on the Fed which “faces a dilemma because lowering rates to bolster a softening labor market could further drive up inflation.”
Tags: Begley, Dilemma, Economic policies, Economist, Fed, Growth, Inflation, Labor market, Moody’s Analytics, Rates, Recession, Stagflation, Stagflation. Dire, Trump, U.S.
Investment Week (August 15)
“In the wake of political pushback and shifting corporate priorities, diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) in financial services has found itself at a crossroads…. Public commitments have dampened, budgets are under scrutiny, and sceptics question whether the industry’s progress is unravelling.” Especially in the United States, a growing number of firms are “scaling back or abandoning DEI initiatives altogether.” However, UK industry leaders believe “the narrative of decline does not tell the full story. While some organisations are quieter in their public statements, there remains evidence that internal commitment remains firm.”
Tags: Abandoning, Budgets, Commitment, Corporate priorities, Crossroads, Dampened, DEI initiatives, Financial services, Political pushback, Public commitments, Scaling back, Sceptics, Scrutiny, U.S., UK, Unravelling
CNN Business (August 14)
In the U.S., “businesses have been eating Trump’s tariffs. That’s starting to change.” Wholesale inflation “picked up steam last month, with prices rising by the fastest monthly pace since June 2022.” The Producer Price Index (PPI) “jumped 0.9% from June, lifting the annual rate to 3.3%.” With costs “sharply on the rise for producers and manufacturers in July,” it looks like “higher prices could soon filter down to American consumers.”
Tags: $3, Businesses, Consumers, Costs, Higher, July, Manufacturers, PPI, Prices, Producers, Tariffs, Trump, U.S., Wholesale inflation
The Economist (August 9)
“With every passing day, America’s new trading order comes into sharper relief. In place of rules, stability and low tariffs is a system of imperial preference. Duties are not just higher, they are set by presidential whim.” While President Trump “thinks America is winning. It is not.”
Tags: Duties, Imperial preference, Low tariffs, New trading order, Presidential whim, Relief, Rules, Stability, System, Trump, U.S., Winning
Barron’s (August 6)
“President Donald Trump has touted major trade partners’ pledges to invest billions in the U.S. as a win for his fluctuating tariff policy. But trade experts say these commitments leave more questions than answers.” Important details like enforcement mechanisms are unknown and there is no effective way for trading partners to compel “private-sector companies to invest.” In addition, “analysts and veteran trade experts note that investment pledges—as well as commitments to buy U.S. goods—haven’t lived up to expectations in the past.”
Tags: Analysts, Commitments, Enforcement mechanisms, Experts, Fluctuating, Investment pledges, Private-sector, Tariff policy, Touted, Trade partners, Trump, U.S., Unknown
