Bloomberg (October 10)
“Betting against the dollar has been the dominant trade this year in the $9.6 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, but the wager is starting to stumble. The world’s primary reserve currency is around a two-month high even as the US government shutdown drags on, and traders in Asia and Europe say hedge funds are adding options bets that the rebound versus most major peers will extend into year-end.”
Tags: $9.6 trillion, Asia, Dollar, Dominant, Forex, Government, Hedge funds, Market, Options bets, Rebound, Reserve currency, Shutdown, Stumble, Trade, Traders, Two-month high, U.S.
Barron’s (October 8)
“The near-simultaneous collapse of two companies tied to the U.S. auto industry is shedding new light on a fast-growing part of the financial ecosystem little known outside Wall Street.” Non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs) “now account for some 33% of all commercial and industrial loans originated by large banks” and, at the end of the month, stood at $1.7 trillion (up over 400% since 2015). “These hard-to-track loans fall outside systems that regulators can track to assess where risk is concentrating.”
Tags: $1.7 trillion, Auto industry, Banks, Collapse, Commercial, Concentrating, Fast-growing, Financial ecosystem, Industrial, Loans originated, NDFIs, Regulators, Risk, U.S., Wall Street
The Economist (October 2)
Donald Trump has remade, rather than destroyed, American financial diplomacy. He has refashioned it “in his image. It is now nakedly self-interested. Money flows to ideological allies, to leaders who control something he covets and to countries he hopes to lure away from China. In the long run, spending on these goals may outpace what was once allocated to poverty alleviation.”
Tags: China, Control, Covets, Destroyed, Financial diplomacy, Ideological allies, Leaders, Lure, Money, Outpace, Poverty alleviation, Remade, Self-interested, Spending, Trump, U.S.
Bloomberg (October 2)
“The European Union plans to hike tariffs on steel imports to 50% and cut by nearly a half the volume of steel that’s allowed in before that higher rate is imposed.” In recent years, “European steel imports have risen as production has fallen.” This move is designed to “align the bloc’s rate with the US, which has sought to push back against overcapacity from China.”
Tags: Align, EU, Imports, Overcapacity, Production, Steel, Tariffs, U.S.
Washington Post (October 1)
The U.S. “federal government shut down at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, after Democrats in Congress failed to reach a deal with Republicans and President Donald Trump to extend funding for federal agencies.” While many “crucial government functions” will cease, “federal work vital to national security will continue, though employees…will go unpaid.” This marks the first shut down “since January 2019, and the fourth of Trump’s two terms.”
Tags: 2019, Congress, Democrats, Employees, Federal government, Functions, Funding, National security, Republicans, Shut down, Trump, U.S., Unpaid
New York Times (September 24)
Germany is attempting to woo “Indian workers spooked by U.S. visa changes,” as the European nation confronts a growing labor shortage. “Every fifth citizen…is now older than 67, and the country’s baby boomers…are beginning to retire.” Currently, there are an estimated 387,000 unfilled jobs, mainly in technology, and “that number is expected to more than double in the next two years.” The unfilled jobs also mean “there are not enough young workers making payments into the social system to support it.”
Tags: Baby boomers, Confronts, Germany, Indian, Labor shortage, Payments, Retire, Social system, Spooked, Technology, U.S., Unfilled jobs, Visa changes, Woo, Workers
Fortune (September 23)
“The OECD has lifted its prediction of global growth to 3.2% for the year, up from the 2.9% it forecasted in June. Predicted U.S. growth rose to 1.8%, an uptick from the 1.6% predicted in June. Still, the OECD warned it had not revised global or U.S. prospects for next year, and the outlook is not good” as the negative impact of tariffs has yet to fully materialize. In 2026, “global growth is predicted to drop to 2.9% while U.S. growth is set to hit 1.5% in 2026, a significant decrease from the respective 3.3% and 2.8% growth in 2024.”
Tags: 2026, 3.2%, Decrease, Global growth, Materialize, Negative impact, OECD, Outlook, Prediction, Tariffs, U.S., Uptick, Warned
Bloomberg (September 19)
“For the first time since at least the 1990s, China hasn’t bought any US soybeans at the start of the export season, a sign that Beijing is once again using agriculture as leverage in its trade fight with Washington.” In 2024, the US supplied “a fifth of China’s soybean imports, worth more than $12 billion, and accounting for over half of total US soy export value.” This year, “US farmers, flush with bumper harvests, are coping with prices near the lowest levels in years.”
Tags: $12 billion, 1990s, 2024, Agriculture, Bumper harvests, China, Export season, Leverage, Prices, Soybeans, Trade fight, U.S., Washington
New York Times (September 16)
“While other countries have scrambled to meet President Trump’s demands to strike deals for reduced tariffs, China has kept to its own timetable.” The costly price has been a 15% drop in “China’s exports to the United States… so far this year.” China has successfully offset this with surging exports to other countries, but robust exports are “masking weakness in other parts of its economy. A persistent real estate downturn has wrecked [sic] havoc on the economy. Consumers are spending less, while joblessness among young people remains a major problem. China is also dealing with a stubborn deflationary spiral, spurred by overproduction in key industries and price wars.” Still, given its degree of media control, the Chinese government does not appear anxious about negotiating a trade deal with the U.S.
Tags: China, Consumers, Deals, Deflationary spiral, Demands, Downturn, Economy, Exports, Havoc, Joblessness, Overproduction, Price wars, Real estate, Spending, Surging, Tariffs, Trump, U.S., Weakness
Bloomberg (September 13)
“President Donald Trump’s most concrete step to rein in unprecedented US budget deficits — sweeping tariff hikes — faces the danger of a legal reversal that would put the nation’s finances on an even shakier footing.” While expert opinion is somewhat divided on the rationale for tariffs, “few disagree that tariff hikes are indeed generating a new stream of cash for the Treasury,” a stream that could disappear with the impending Supreme Court decision, placing “Trump’s deficit plan at risk.”
Tags: Budget deficits, Danger, Decision, Expert, Finances, Legal reversal, Opinion, Rationale, Risk, Shakier, Supreme Court, Tariff hikes, Treasury, Trump, U.S., Unprecedented
