Wall Street Journal (August 1)
“There is an irony in Detroit right now: The automaker most reliant on U.S. manufacturing is among the hardest hit by tariffs.” Of any automaker, Ford manufactures the most vehicles in the U.S. “Some 80% of the cars Ford sells in the U.S. are built there,” but Ford is being “put it at a disadvantage with foreign rivals. Those deals now set a 15% tariff rate.” Ford which paid $800 million for tariffs in Q2 has been particularly hard hit as it “faces steeper tariffs on many parts as well as higher costs for imported aluminum, which is subject to 50% duties.”
Tags: $800 million, 15%, 50, Aluminum, Automaker, Detroit, Disadvantage, Ford, Foreign rivals, Irony, Manufacturing, Parts, Q2, Reliant, Tariffs, U.S., Vehicles
Fortune (August 19)
“The U.S. Federal Reserve’s looming decision on whether to cut interest rates in September 2025 is sparking heightened concern on Wall Street, as strategists at Bank of America (BofA) Securities draw unsettling parallels to the months preceding the 2007–08 financial crisis” in a note entitled “Ghosts of 2007.”
Tags: BofA, Concern, Cut, Fed, Financial Crisis, Ghosts of 2007, Interest rates, Looming. Decision, Parallels, September, Strategists, U.S., Unsettling, Wall Street
The Economist (July 31)
“America’s biggest technology companies are combining Silicon Valley returns with Ruhr Valley balance-sheets. Investors who bought shares in Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft a decade ago are sitting on eight times their money, excluding dividends.” Their hard assets multiplied with data center investment and their property, plant and equipment is now “worth more than 60% of their equity book value, up from 20%” a decade ago. Even more eye popping, combined with Amazon and Oracle, their capex spending is estimated to account “for a third of America’s economic growth during the most recent quarter.”
Tags: Alphabet, Amazon, Balance sheets, Book value, CAPEX, Data centers, Dividends, Eye-popping, Hard assets, Investors, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Returns, Shares, Silicon Valley, U.S.
Financial Times (July 28)
“The world was in striking agreement on one point: if Donald Trump went ahead with tariffs, it would strengthen the dollar and trigger stagflation.” It hasn’t, even though the “effective US tariff rate has already risen from 2.5 per cent to 15 per cent.” This outcome is unlikely to upturn conventional tariff wisdom. The U.S. is not “really enjoying a free lunch, taking in $300bn a year in tariff revenues with none of the expected heartburn.” It is much more probable that other factors, like AI’s explosive growth, have hidden the impact. The most likely culprit is “the timeworn mistake of employing simple models…. Complex economies are rarely shaped by just one factor, not even a shock as big as Trump’s tariffs.”
Tags: 15%, Agreement, AI, Complex economies, Conventional wisdom, Dollar, Free lunch, Hidden, Impact, Simple models, Stagflation, Tariffs, Trump, U.S.
Fortune (July 27)
“Now that trade deals have been clinched with the European Union and Japan, the U.S. looks to focus on China as the world’s two biggest economies prepare for high-stakes talks.” Some think “China will be less willing to cave,” which could send tariffs “back to prohibitively high levels that would effectively cut off trade.” On the other hand, with legal challenges set to commence in August, the “U.S. tariffs could be invalidated.” In fact, many suspect the promised investment from Japan and the EU was pledged with this in mind…and that it will never transpire.
Tags: August, China, Clinched, Economies, EU, High stakes, Invalidated, Investment, Japan, Legal challenges, Pledged, Tariffs, Trade, Trade deals, U.S.
Washington Post (July 24)
With import tariffs capped at 15%, Japanese autos look set to “benefit more than their rivals” due to the recently concluded U.S./Japan trade agreement while cars manufactured in their American plants may be able to escape tariffs completely. In contrast, many U.S. automakers have supply chains that “cross multiple borders, particularly in North America, where goods from Mexico and Canada are subject to 25 percent tariffs.” This may leave domestic automakers at a disadvantage. “Vehicles assembled in Mexico,” like the Chevrolet Equinox and the Ford Maverick, are expected to pass on “the highest costs to consumers.”
Tags: 15%, 25%, Assembled, Automakers, Autos, Benefit, Canada, Cars, Chevrolet, Costs, Ford, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/07/23/automakers-tariff-japan/ Japan, Import tariffs, Mexico, Multiple borders, North America, Rivals, Supply chains, Trade agreement, U.S., Vehicles
Bloomberg (July 22)
“China has increasingly relied on third countries for the manufacturing of final products or components,” which has softened the blow of the tariff war. If, however, Trump succeeds “in targeting transshipments via higher levies or supply chain requirements, it would threaten 70% of China’s exports to the US and more than 2.1% of the Asian country’s gross domestic product,” with “a risk of additional economic damage if the restrictions weigh on countries’ desire to do business with China.”
Tags: China, Components, Economic damage, Exports, Final products, GDP, Levies, Manufacturing, Relied, Supply chain requirements, Tariff war, Threaten, Transshipments, Trump, U.S.
Reuters (July 22)
“China’s hardened rhetoric against price wars among producers is raising expectations Beijing may be about to kick off industrial capacity cuts in a long-awaited, but challenging, campaign against deflation that carries risks to economic growth.” Such a campaign would “echo” similar successful “reforms a decade ago to reduce the production of steel, cement, glass and coal, which were crucial to ending a period of 54 consecutive months of falling factory gate prices.” Success may prove elusive this round. “The fight against deflation will be much more complicated and poses risks to employment and growth” while U.S. trade war ”is intensifying price wars, squeezing factory profits.”
Tags: Beijing, Cement, China, Coal, Complicated, Deflation, Economic growth, Employment, Expectations, Glass, Growth, Industrial capacity, Price wars, Producers, Rhetoric, Risks, Steel, Trade war, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (July 21)
“While no recession has been yet forecast, economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025” based on a larger than expected decline in leading economic indicators. “The U.S. economy is set to slow… with the impact of tariffs becoming more pronounced in the second half of the year through higher prices.”
Tags: 2025, Decline, Economic growth, Forecast, Higher prices, Impact, Leading economic indicators, Recession, Second half, Slow, Tariffs, U.S.
Barron’s (July 19)
“This market risk is a slow-motion wreck waiting to happen.” And yet the U.S. market remains sanguine, largely tuning “out the past week’s tariff drama.” Freya Beamish, Chief Economist at TS Lombard, is “cautioning investors against complacency because multiple ‘low-grade shocks’ can take their toll like that of a frog in boiling water.” The impact of tariffs, deportations and “the series of low-grade shocks the market is struggling to digest” will eventually appear and “investors may be underestimating their impact on inflation.”
Tags: Beamish, Boiling water, Chief economist, Complacency, Deportations, Frog, Inflation, Investors, Low-grade shocks, Market risk, Slow-motion wreck, Tariffs, TS Lombard, U.S.
