Fortune (September 3)
“As traders head into the final leg of 2025 they are not doing so with overconfidence. In fact, if this week’s bond market is anything to go by, they’re nervous.” Safe haven gold has hit record highs and a “global bond selloff” is creating concern over national debt. “The upset isn’t confined to America alone. In Europe, French government bonds…similarly spiked toward a 5% yield and sit at 4.49% at the time of writing, marking its highest run since 2009.” Arguably, the U.K. is getting hit hardest, “with 30-year gilts pushing above 5.7%, their highest level since the spring of 1998.”
Tags: 2025, Bond market, France, Gilts, Global bond selloff, Gold, National debt, Nervous, Overconfidence, Record highs, Safe haven, Traders, U.K., U.S.
Wall Street Journal (July 21)
“While no recession has been yet forecast, economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025” based on a larger than expected decline in leading economic indicators. “The U.S. economy is set to slow… with the impact of tariffs becoming more pronounced in the second half of the year through higher prices.”
Tags: 2025, Decline, Economic growth, Forecast, Higher prices, Impact, Leading economic indicators, Recession, Second half, Slow, Tariffs, U.S.
Market Watch (July 14)
In contrast with previous guidance, Goldman Sachs now expects U.S. home prices to grow only 0.5% in 2025 and 1.2% the following year, “a huge drop from the growth the market saw during the pandemic.” Goldman cited “three big reasons for its pessimism regarding home prices: slowing prices, rising housing supply and persistently high mortgage rates.”
Tags: 0.5%, 2025, Drop, Goldman Sachs, Growth, Guidance, Home prices, Housing supply, Market, Pandemic, Pessimism, Slowing, U.S.
WARC (June 13)
“Alphabet, Amazon and Meta dominate the advertising market outside China: they’re set to account for 54.7% of that total in 2025 – equivalent to $524.4bn – rising to 56.2% in 2026. The introduction of AI stands to disrupt some ad revenue models, particularly in search, but Google’s dominance of that market will likely persist in the near term,” according to WARC’s Global Ad Forecast Q2 2025.
Tags: $524.4bn, 2025, 2026, Ad revenue, Advertising market, AI, Alphabet, Amazon, China, Disrupt, Dominance, Dominate, Global Ad Forecast, Google, Market, Meta, Persist
CNN (June 10)
According to the World Bank, “Global economic growth is on track for its weakest decade since the 1960s.” Its current forecast now estimates global GDP growth in 2025 at 2.3%, a downgrade “from the 2.7% it had forecast in January.” If the World Bank’s current projections for 2025 and 2026 transpire, the global economy will be “on course for its weakest pace of growth in 17 years, excluding two global recessions” arising from the2009 financial crisis and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.
Tags: 1960s, 2.3%, 2025, 2026, Downgrade, Economic growth, Financial Crisis, Forecast, GDP growth, Global, Weakest decade, World Bank
The Economist (June 7)
“Without fanfare, something remarkable has happened.” There’s been a “stunning decline of the preference for having boys.” More parents are saying “Phew, it’s a girl!” In 2000, “a staggering 1.6m girls were missing from the number you would expect, given the natural sex ratio at birth. This year that number is likely to be 200,000—and it is still falling.”
Tags: 2000, 2025, Birth, Boys, Falling, Girls, Natural, Parents, Preference, Remarkable, Sex ratio, Stunning decline
The Times (May 13)
“The United States is expected to lose $12.5 billion in international travel spending by the end of the year.” According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) “reports of tourists being stopped at the border, visa detentions, a tariff war waged by the Trump administration and a higher exchange rate” are all factors in what they estimate will reduce 2025 spending by foreign tourists in the U.S. to $169 billion, “down 7 per cent from $181 billion last year and 22 per cent from the peak before the pandemic.”
Tags: $12.5 billion, $169 billion, 2025, Border, Exchange rate, International travel, Pandemic, Reduce, Spending, Tariff war, Tourists, Trump, U.S., Visa detentions, WTTC
CNN (May 1)
“Another day, another piece of evidence that President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with friends and foes is hurting the global economy. Today: Japan’s central bank cut its economic growth forecast for the country in half.” The Bank of Japan “lowered its expectations for 2025 gross domestic product growth to an anemic 0.5%, down from the previous projection of +1.1%, made in January.”
Tags: 0.5%, 2025, Anemic, BOJ, Economic growth, Escalating, Evidence, Expectations, Foes, Forecast, Friends, GDP, Global economy, Hurting, Japan, Trade war, Trump
Bloomberg (April 5)
“The plunge in oil prices over the past two days following the twin shocks of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the surprise boost in production from OPEC+ has altered the global energy landscape with stunning speed.” The market is frantically “tossing aside expectations for 2025” as Brent crude “tumbled 13% through Thursday and Friday to just over $66 a barrel, casting new doubts on Trump’s quest to aggressively boost US fossil fuel output and achieve ‘energy dominance.’”
Tags: $66, 2025, Altered, Brent, Doubts, Energy landscape, Expectations, Fossil fuel, Market, Oil prices, OPEC, Output, Plunge, Production, Stunning, Surprise, Trump’s tariffs, Tumbled, Twin shocks, U.S.
Barron’s (March 17)
“They’ve gone from the Mag Seven to the Lag Seven.” Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Tesla collectively represented over “half of the S& P 500’s gain of 23% in 2024 as they rose an average of 60%.” This year they are “down an average of 15%” and “now account for about 95% of the index’s decline of 6% in 2025.” However, the Mag Seven “aren’t destined to fail or fade into insignificance. They remain too dominant…and too reasonably priced, with six of the seven trading for 18 to 30 times projected 2025 earnings. (Tesla, at 85 times, is the notable exception.)”
Tags: 2024, 2025, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Decline, Dominant, Earnings, Fade, Fail, Lag Seven, Mag Seven, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Reasonably priced, S&P 500, Tesla
