New York Times (August 25)
“Given the war in Ukraine, the risks of a larger war in the Middle East and China’s accelerating challenge to American primacy, Europe needs the United States more than it has since the end of the Cold War. And America still has a unique and valuable asset that its growing list of rivals and adversaries don’t: reliable allies and partners in Europe.” No two ways about it: “America and Europe need each other.”
Tags: Adversaries, Allies, Asset, China, Cold war, Europe, Middle East, Primacy, Reliable, Risks, Rivals, U.S., Ukraine, Unique, Valuable, War
Reuters (August 24)
The U.S. Federal Reserve “must determine how quickly to get to what they deem a neutral rate, neither depressing nor stimulating economic activity. Investors clearly hope that they prioritize speed.” Chairman Powell has now arrived at “the endgame, when the prospect of success is near at hand but the possibility of failure is at its most dangerous. To save the labor market, the cuts can’t come soon enough.”
Tags: Depressing, Economic activity, Endgame, Failure, Fed, Investors, Labor market, Neutral rate, Powell, Prioritize, Speed, Stimulating, Success, U.S.
Financial Times (August 23)
“Closely watched gauges of long-term inflation expectations in Europe have reached their lowest levels for almost two years, in a sign that investors think central banks can keep lowering interest rates without risking a flare-up in price pressures.” Concerns are also easing in the U.S., with “markets pricing the average long-term inflation rate at 2.4 per cent, down from 2.6 per cent in July.”
Tags: Central banks, Concerns, Easing, Europe, Expectations, Flare up, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Price pressures, Risking, U.S.
Washington Post (August 21)
“A looming rail work stoppage in Canada is worrying U.S. businesses and threatening deliveries of cars, timber, petroleum products, grains and other crucial supplies.” A strike would likely prevent “more than 2,500 railcars from crossing the border each day.” Estimates suggest one day of stoppage will “require three to five days for the railroads to recover” so the “consequences of a Canadian rail strike could be far-reaching.”
Tags: Businesses, Canada, Cars, Consequences, Deliveries, Grains, Looming, Petroleum, Railcars, Railroads, Recover, Strike, Timber, U.S., Work stoppage
Wall Street Journal (August 10)
“China was bruised by its trade war with the U.S. under President Donald Trump, but ultimately bounced back.” If he is re-elected “The economic damage to China would be much steeper than in Trump’s first term because the tariffs would be higher and China’s economy is much more vulnerable.”
Tags: Bruised, China, Economic damage, Economy, Re-elected, Tariffs, Trade war, Trump, U.S., Vulnerable
Financial Times (August 7)
The equity sell-off in the U.S. “could have triggered the unwinding of the carry trade, not the other way around. And the timing suggests this is what happened. The equity sell-off did not start in earnest until Friday of last week — two days after the BoJ raised rates, or after currency traders had time to digest the news.”
Tags: BOJ, Carry trade, Currency traders, Equity, Rates, Sell-off, Triggered, U.S., Unwinding
Markets Insider (August 3)
“Japan’s stocks took a hit on Friday, fueled by economic concerns in the US and the Bank of Japan’s interest-rate hike earlier this week.” Closing down 5.8%, the Nikkei marked “its largest daily decline since March 2020 after hitting record highs earlier this month.” The Nikkei was not alone. Amid signs of a cooling economy, U.S. stock indices “tanked across the board over the past two days due to a combination of discouraging economic data points, including rising unemployment and slowing manufacturing and construction.”
Tags: 2020, 5.8%, BOJ, Construction, Cooling, Decline, Discouraging, Economic concerns, Friday, Interest-rate hike, Japan, Manufacturing, Nikkei, Record highs, Stocks, U.S., Unemployment
Foreign Policy (August 1)
The U.S. economic pivot to Asia began in 2011, but its tenor “has switched from economic offense to defense.” In the intervening years, “America’s positive economic agenda in Asia—opening markets, lowering barriers to trade, sealing agreements—bore virtually no fruit.” Largely driven by China, the U.S. instead raised tariffs, imposed sanctions, and “moved to de-risk and ‘friendshore’” supply chains.
Tags: 2011, Agenda, Agreements, Asia, China, De-risk, Defense, Economic offense, Economic pivot, Friendshore, Lowering barriers, Opening markets, Positive, Sanctions, Tariffs, Trade, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (July 29)
The “post-covid factory boom Is running out of steam,” leaving U.S. manufacturers to rethink “their plans as they brace for an extended slump in demand.” Compounding factors include “higher interest rates, rising operating costs, a strengthening U.S. dollar and lower selling prices for commodities” as more executives forecast “challenging business conditions for the remainder of the year.”
Tags: Commodities, Demand, Dollar, Executives, Extended slump, Factory boom, Interest rates, Manufacturers, Operating costs, Plans, Post-Covid, Rethink, U.S.
Bloomberg (July 28)
“Bond traders who’ve set themselves up for gradual interest-rate cuts starting in September are ramping up side bets in case a sudden slide in the US economy forces the Federal Reserve to be even more aggressive.” A minimum of two quarter-point rate reductions are priced in for the year and “some traders have gone even further with wagers that pay off if central bankers go bold and deliver a half-point cut in mid-September — or start lowering rates sooner.”
Tags: Aggressive, Bond traders, Central bankers, Economy, Fed, Half-point, Interest, Quarter-point, Rate cuts, September, Slide, U.S.
