Barron’s (June 19)
“The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has sent oil prices higher over the past few days. If history is anything to go by, the pressure it’s putting on global energy costs will fade before too long.” Immediate fears of a shortage “are usually exaggerated–the risk that geopolitical events create a shortage of crude almost never materialize, even though that’s always the first thing on traders’ minds.”
Tags: Conflict, Crude, Energy costs, Escalating, Exaggerated, Fears, Geopolitical events, History, Iran, Israel, Oil prices, Pressure, Risk, Shortage, Traders
Seeking Alpha (October 28)
“Benchmark crude oil futures fell Monday in their largest one-day decline in more than two years after Israel’s weekend strikes on Iran avoided energy facilities and ease worries of a wider war that could disrupt global supplies… Analysts said the lack of strikes on oil or nuclear facilities leaves the door open for both sides to de-escalate the conflict.”
Tags: Analysts, Benchmark, Crude oil, De-escalate, Decline, Disrupt, Energy facilities, Futures, Iran, Israel, Nuclear, Oil, Strikes, Wider war
New York Times (October 3)
“Markets are on edge about the risk of another oil shock. The price of crude has been relatively stable over the past year, apart from brief spikes.” Now, however, concern is focused on the potential “economic cost of a new war in the Middle East.” Estimates of the potential cost are wide-ranging and speculative, but “an escalation of fighting between Israel and Iran could cause oil prices to spike and send a chill through the global economy.”
Tags: Chill, Crude, Economic cost, Escalation, Fighting, Iran, Israel, Markets, Middle East, Oil prices, Oil shock, Risk, Speculative, Spikes, Stable, War
Wall Street Journal (March 2)
With “the rapidly advancing nuclear capabilities of all four of America’s nuclear-capable rivals—Russia, Iran, North Korea and China,” it is time to reevaluate nuclear strategy. “Instead of pursuing 1990s-era fantasies about reducing the role of nuclear weapons, Washington needs to understand that… it is entering a long-term strategic-arms competition.” The U.S. must “strengthen its strategic forces to provide an adequate deterrent for itself and the more than 30 formal treaty allies that rely on U.S. nuclear weapons for their security.”
Tags: 1990s, Advancing, Allies, Capabilities, China, Competition, Deterrent, Iran, North Korea, Nuclear, Rivals, Russia, Strategic arms, Strategy, U.S., Weapons
Wall Street Journal (December 6)
“Three potential crises are proceeding in tandem: a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, continuing Chinese pressure on Taiwan and the potential collapse of Iran nuclear talks.” Individually, any “of these standoffs has the potential to shake the world order and produce wider conflict. Taken together, they signal that the U.S. and its allies are at a dangerous moment.” Findings a way to successfully “show firmness on each front without provoking a crisis” will provechallenging.
Tags: Allies, China, Collapse, Conflict, Crises, Dangerous, Iran, Nuclear talks, Russian invasion, Standoffs, Taiwan, U.S., Ukraine
Wall Street Journal (August 31)
In a best case scenario, the withdrawal from Afghanistan “frees the U.S. from a costly distraction and enables us to focus more on China. Let Russia worry about fanatical jihadist warriors and missionaries fanning out across Central Asia…. Let China cope with the double-dealing, back-stabbing, perpetually indigent Pakistani government. Let Iran deal with newly empowered Sunni zealots, uncontrolled opium flows and a stream of refugees pressing on its frontiers.”
Tags: Afghanistan, Best case, China, Costly, Distraction, Iran, Jihadist, Opium, Pakistan, Refugees, Russia, Scenario, U.S., Warriors, Withdrawal, Zealots
The Guardian (March 26)
“How did Spain get its coronavirus response so wrong? Spain saw what happened in Iran and Italy – and yet it just overtook China’s death toll in one of the darkest moments in recent Spanish history.”
LA Times (January 6)
“President Trump threatened to destroy 52 Iranian sites — ‘some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture’ — on Twitter on Saturday.” This “amounts to an announcement of an intention to commit war crimes.” Doing so would be in direct contravention of the Hague Convention and the Geneva Convention, which prioritize the preservation of religious, humanitarian and cultural heritage sites.
Tags: Contravention, Culture, Geneva Convention, Hague Convention, Heritage, Humanitarian, Intention, Iran, Threat, Trump, War crimes
New York Times (January 4)
“President Trump’s decision to authorize the killing of a top Iranian military leader could be the match that sets off a regional conflagration, or it could have only marginal geopolitical impact…. But it is just the latest example of the capricious way in which the president, as commander in chief, has chosen to flex his lethal powers.”
Tags: Authorize, Capricious, Conflagration, Geopolitical, Impact, Iran, Killing, Military, Trump
Forbes (October 28)
“Amid a global slowdown in economic growth that has seen central banks lower interest rates near zero or below in an effort to provide stimulus,” a number of “major economies are on high recession alert.” These include Hong Kong, the U.K., Germany, Italy and China. “Other highly stressed economies around the world include Turkey, Argentina, Iran, Mexico and Brazil.”
Tags: Argentina, Brazil, Central banks, China, Economic growth, Germany, Global slowdown, Hong Kong, Interest rates, Iran, Italy, Mexico, Recession, Stimulus, Stressed, Turkey, U.K.
