The Economist (July 11)
The Prime Minister of Canada and the President of Finland jointly champion “values-based realism” and “ad hoc coalitions.” They believe “the world order built after 1945 is unravelling” and that “neither wishful multilateralism nor cold realpolitik” provides a sufficient alternative.” Together “Mark Carney and Alexander Stubb suggest a third way…. “We must form calibrated alliances, integrating deeply with those countries that share our values, and remain open-eyed with those that do not.”
Tags: 1945, Ad hoc coalitions, Alliances, Canada, Carney, Champion, Finland, Multilateralism, Open-eyed, President, Prime minister, Realpolitik, Stubb, Unravelling, Values-based realism, World order
Wall Street Journal (July 10)
The “dismal reality” is that Trump’s “border taxes are raising costs and have failed to usher in a manufacturing renaissance. His tariffs are “destroying U.S. jobs and raising prices.” The U.S. has shed “some 75,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2025” and it’s estimated Trump’s tariffs added 10.4% to new car sticker prices. Basically, “businesses don’t know what the trade rules or tariffs will be in a few years—or even tomorrow with Mr. Trump. His trade oscillations and border taxes are a major reason the economy hasn’t performed as well as during his first term, and why Americans are so unhappy.”
Tags: Border taxes, Businesses, Cars, Costs, Destroying, Dismal reality, Economy, Failed, Jobs, Manufacturing, Oscillations, Prices, Trade rules, Trump’s tariffs, U.S., Unhappy
The Times (July 9)
“Every one of Russia’s ten biggest refineries has been hit at least once since the start of the war.” The images of panic buying and “colossal queues will raise spirits in Kyiv,” but the attacks have only seemed to harden “Putin’s determination to achieve victory in Ukraine.” Nor have “the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Russian men on the battlefields of Ukraine” moved the war closer to an end. Similarly, “there are few signs so far that fuel deficits will change Putin’s mind about a conflict that he views as existential for his country.”
Tags: Attacks, Battlefields, Colossal queues, Deaths, Determination, Fuel, Kyiv, Panic buying, Putin, Refineries, Russia, Ukraine, Victory, War
Institutional Investor (July 8)
“Hedge funds turned in one of their strongest first-half performances in nearly three decades… with technology specialists leading gains and multi-strategy funds continuing their steady climb.” However, the “strong headline returns masked a more uneven picture beneath the surface, with wide dispersion across strategies and only a handful of standouts driving performance.”
Tags: Dispersion, First-half, Gains, Hedge funds, Masked, Multi-strategy funds, Performance, Returns, Standouts, Steady climb, Strategies, Strongest, Technology specialists, Uneven
The Guardian (July 7)
“Fears of a recession have fallen away, with economists saying Australia is set to safely navigate the biggest global oil supply shock in history even as they warn of substandard growth in the year ahead. The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict has been accompanied by a major retreat in global oil prices back to prewar levels, essentially removing the worst-case scenarios.” But pessimism still runs deep amongst households, with consumer confidence at roughly “a 50-year low as many Australians struggle to cope with substantially higher prices after years of above-average inflation.”
Tags: Australia, Consumer confidence, Cope, De-escalation, Economists, Fears, Global oil prices, Households, Inflation, Middle East conflict, Pessimism, Recession, Retreat, Struggle, Supply shock
Bloomberg (July 6)
“Donald Trump’s war against Iran may be over, but the repercussions for global monetary policy are here to stay.” In particular, “the path for central bank interest rates around the world has now shifted higher for years to come.” Forecasts for borrowing costs calculated by Bloomberg Economics (BE) “show trajectories elevated by as much as half a percentage point or more through 2028 compared with those envisaged before the war. That’s both on BE’s global gauge for rates, and its measure for advanced economies.”
Tags: 2028, Bloomberg Economics, Borrowing costs, Central bank, Elevated, Forecasts, Global, Higher, Interest rates, Iran, Monetary policy, Repercussions, Trump, War
Fortune (July 5)
“In a note on Tuesday” Bank of America “analysts reaffirmed their year-end price target of 7,100 for the broad market index, representing a 5% drop from the week’s closing level.” Citing “extreme levels” of speculation, BoA believes the market is poised for a “snapback,” also noting “that S&P 500 companies are generating less free cash flow relative to net income compared to historical trends. That’s as so-called hyperscalers have seen their free cash flow plunge due to massive spending on the AI boom, eroding their earnings.”
Tags: AI boom, Analysts, BoA, Broad market, Earnings, FCF, Historical trends, Hyperscalers, Index, Net income, Note, Price target, S&P 500, Snapback, Speculation, Spending
New York Times (July 5)
“A quarter of a millennium is long enough to make a nation feel permanent, as though it had always been here and always will be. But the founders… knew that they were making a wager, not a guarantee.” So far, the U.S. has surmounted seemingly existential challenges. “Each time the Republic proved more durable than its mourners predicted, not because of any magic in the system, but because enough people decided the alternative was unacceptable and went to work. Democracy is not a sheltered structure we live inside. It is a habit we must practice — or lose.”
Tags: Challenges, Democracy, Durable, Existential, Founders, Guarantee, Habit, Nation, Permanent, Practice, Surmounted, U.S., Wager
The Economist (July 4)
“We woz wrong about oil. The market bested us…. There is no shame in that. We stick our neck out and consequently risk having it chopped from time to time.” This is one of those times. Before May, “we said oil traders were in ‘la-la land’ thinking that oil prices would fall to $88 by the end of the year. Today Brent crude costs just over $70 a barrel. Our prediction went about as well as the war.”
Tags: $70 bbl, $88 bbl, Brent crude, La-la land, Market, Oil, Oil prices, Prediction, Shame, Traders
Traders Magazine (July 2)
“Despite the rapid electronification of securities trading, buy-side firms continue to place a premium on human expertise when selecting trading counterparties.” A recent report “found that after execution performance, buy-side traders ranked trading desk coverage as the most important consideration in counterparty selection for 2026, ahead of liquidity, operational efficiency and access to electronic trading services and analytics.” Human judgement was especially sought after during “periods of market volatility.”
