Fortune (August 27)
“Investors are underestimating the inflation risk of President Trump’s tariffs, which will push up import costs,” concludes analyst Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank. “One indicator forecasts that U.S. inflation may soon exceed 4%. Consumers are also expecting higher prices. But the inflation swaps market has yet to reflect these risks.”
Tags: 4%, Allen, Analyst, Consumers, Deutsche Bank, Forecasts, Higher prices, Import costs, Indicator, Inflation, Investors, Risk, Trump’s tariffs, U.S., Underestimating
Bloomberg (August 24)
“China’s economy is being strained by US tariffs and a deep-rooted property crisis, yet stocks are extending their bull run — a disconnect that’s stirring doubts on the rally’s staying power. In just the past month, onshore stocks have added almost a trillion dollars to their market value, the Shanghai Composite Index has hit a decade-high and the CSI 300 Index has taken its advance from this year’s low to more than 20%. That’s when nearly every recent economic indicator — from consumption trends, home prices to inflation — has brought red flags for investors.”
Tags: Bull run, China, Consumption trends, CSI 300, Disconnect, Doubts, Economic indicator, Economy, Home prices, Inflation, Investors, Market value, Property crisis, Rally, Red flags, Shanghai, Staying power, Stocks, US tariffs
USA Today (August 16)
“President Donald Trump’s aggressive economic policies will likely significantly slow U.S. growth and push up inflation but stop short of causing a recession or “stagflation” – the dire scenarios that forecasters envisioned before he took office.” Economist Justin Begley of Moody’s Analytics believes the U.S. is edging toward stagflation, but will not end up there. Much will depend on the Fed which “faces a dilemma because lowering rates to bolster a softening labor market could further drive up inflation.”
Tags: Begley, Dilemma, Economic policies, Economist, Fed, Growth, Inflation, Labor market, Moody’s Analytics, Rates, Recession, Stagflation, Stagflation. Dire, Trump, U.S.
Barron’s (July 31)
“The Federal Reserve’s key inflation gauge,” which excludes food and energy “ran just slightly above expectations in June, raising additional doubts about how quickly the bank will be able to lower interest rates.” Rising 0.3% month on month and 2.8% year on year, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index surpassed consensus expectations. This week, Fed officials indicated the need before lowering rates for “more evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the bank’s 2% target,” but the PCE’s “stronger-than-expected result” appears to show the opposite.
Tags: 2% target, Consensus, Doubts, Energy, Evidence, Expectations, Fed, Food, Inflation, Inflation gauge, Interest rates, June, PCE
Barron’s (July 19)
“This market risk is a slow-motion wreck waiting to happen.” And yet the U.S. market remains sanguine, largely tuning “out the past week’s tariff drama.” Freya Beamish, Chief Economist at TS Lombard, is “cautioning investors against complacency because multiple ‘low-grade shocks’ can take their toll like that of a frog in boiling water.” The impact of tariffs, deportations and “the series of low-grade shocks the market is struggling to digest” will eventually appear and “investors may be underestimating their impact on inflation.”
Tags: Beamish, Boiling water, Chief economist, Complacency, Deportations, Frog, Inflation, Investors, Low-grade shocks, Market risk, Slow-motion wreck, Tariffs, TS Lombard, U.S.
Fortune (June 22)
“Russia’s high-spending war economy, after years of defying predictions of imminent recession, is finally running into the hard limits of labor, productivity, and inflation.”
Tags: Defying, High-spending, Imminent, Inflation, Labor, Limits, Predictions, Productivity, Recession, Russia, War economy
USA Today (June 22)
“The U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend could ratchet up the pressure on an American economy that’s turned increasingly fragile as a weekslong global trade war takes a toll.” The new foray “is most likely to impact oil prices, investors said, which could ripple through the economy by causing higher transportation and gas prices, just as overall inflation throughout the economy has seemed to be contained.”
Tags: Attack, Economy, Foray, Fragile, Gas prices, Impact, Inflation, Investors, Iran, Nuclear sites, Oil prices, Ripple, Trade war, Transportation, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (June 20)
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell “offered nothing to hint at a July rate reduction, and investors eyed September as the earliest possible resumption of rate cuts paused earlier this year. With most relevant data still to come, it made little sense for the Fed chair to commit to a specific course of action.” The Fed is waiting to see “the aftereffects” of Trump’s tariffs. “Most economists expect tariffs to lift prices over the coming months, and that is a worry for the Fed because officials still don’t feel as if they completely vanquished inflation after a three-year-long fight.”
Tags: Aftereffects, Data, Economists, Fed, Inflation, Investors, Powell, Prices, Rate cuts, September, Trump’s tariffs, Waiting
Reuters (June 19)
“Central banks are grappling with elevated uncertainty about economic growth and inflation, complicating decision-making, especially for those trying to calibrate policy as they near the end of their rate-cutting cycles.” The rate uncertainty is in turn “making life hard for investors.” For example, “Norway’s central bank on Thursday gave markets a shock by cutting interest rates, and even the U.S. Federal Reserve is warning not to put much weight on its policy projections.”
Tags: Calibrate, Central banks, Decision-making, Economic growth, Fed, Grappling, Inflation, Investors, Norway, Policy projections, Rate-cutting cycles, U.S., Uncertainty, Warning
Washington Post (June 15)
The “U.S. could lose more immigrants than it gains for first time in 50 years.” This would “mark a turning point in the country’s demographic and economic trajectory, and an abrupt shift from the nearly 3 million net migrants the United States gained just last year.” Negative migration “could become a drag on the U.S. labor force,” potentially slowing “economic growth and fueling inflation.”
Tags: 3 million, 50 years, Abrupt shift, Demographic, Drag, Economic growth, Inflation, Labor force, Migrants, Negative migration, Trajectory, Turning-point, U.S.
