Reuters (January 29)
“Equity analysts are still counting on a speedy reopening. They expect the 1,585 companies included in the Global MSCI Index to report 6% higher net profit this year than they did in 2019, and 21% higher earnings in 2022.” Constituents are “still valued on an average multiple of 21 times this year’s forecast earnings, far above a long-term average of 16 times. With the path out of lockdowns looking uncertain, such exuberance is likely to end in disappointment.”
Tags: 2019, 2022, Analysts, Disappointment, Equity, Exuberance, Forecast earnings, Global MSCI, Lockdowns, Multiples, Profit, Reopening, Uncertain
South China Morning Post (April 17)
“China’s economy shrank by 6.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, the first contraction since the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976, confirming the economic damage done by the coronavirus pandemic.” The massive contraction “was worse than predictions of minus 6.0 per cent from a survey of analysts’ forecasts by Bloomberg.”
Tags: Analysts, China, Contraction, Coronavirus, Cultural Revolution, Economic damage, Economy, Pandemic
Institutional Investor (March 20)
“The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the world’s economy into a slowdown that may lead to default rates jumping as high as 10 percent in the next twelve months, according to analysts at S&P Global…. The sudden stop in global economic activity, the recent drop in oil prices, and record market volatility are all putting pressure on the creditworthiness of companies.”
Tags: Analysts, Coronavirus, Default, Economy, Oil prices, Pandemic, S&P, Slowdown, Vlatility
Wall Street Journal (November 4)
“Humble CEOs don’t inspire much confidence among financial analysts—but that might be good news for people who invest in the CEOs’ companies.” According to a recent study, “analysts tend to significantly underestimate the earnings potential of companies run by humble chief executive officers. That leads to artificially low earnings forecasts from the analysts, which the firms can then more easily meet or beat.” On average, this “humble discount” results “in at least a 7% increase in total shareholder returns annually.”
Tags: Analysts, Beat, CEOs, Confidence, Discount, Earnings forecasts, Earnings potential, Humble, Inspire, Shareholder returns, Underestimate
CNN (April 11)
“Investors will be in wait-and-watch mode until polling ends and India’s new leader is elected on May 23. Whoever wins, business is unlikely to get the kind of boost seen in the last five years…. Still, analysts expect India to remain open to global investors no matter who is at the helm. And the country’s huge market of 1.3 billion people may simply be too tempting to pass up.”
The Economist (January 12)
“Analysts reckon that the number of smartphones sold in 2018 will be slightly lower than in 2017, the industry’s first ever annual decline.” “Peak smartphone” may be “bad news for Apple shareholders,” but the apparent “levelling off at around 1.4bn units a year is good news for humanity.”
Tags: Analysts, Apple, Decline, Humanity, Industry, Peak smartphone, Shareholders, Smartphones
MarketWatch (November 27)
The plan to close plants and slash workforce “is good for GM—and it could shake up things at Tesla and Ford too.” Despite coming under political fire, GM’s “newly announced cost-cutting plan has drawn praise on Wall Street, with analysts applauding the car maker for sharpening its focus on higher-growth areas such as driverless and electric vehicles and forestalling a slowdown in its business.”
Tags: Analysts, Cost cutting, Driverless, EVs, Ford, GM, Plants, Slowdown, Tesla, Wall Street, Workforce
Wall Street Journal (August 21)
“Investors are running out of reasons to keep buying U.S. stocks, exposing a growing number of warning signs. The historic calm that enveloped U.S. stocks for much of this year has been upended twice in the past two weeks…. It is too soon to call the end of the eight-year bull market, investors, traders and analysts say, but many agree the indiscriminate optimism that characterized the postelection rally is evaporating.”
Tags: Analysts, Bull market, Indiscriminate, Investors, Optimism, Rally, Stocks, Traders, U.S., Warning signs
Bloomberg (June 2)
“China’s yuan policy has blindsided forecasters once again. The sudden surge in the last four days — for the onshore exchange rate, it’s been the steepest gain in more than four months — pushed the currency beyond levels predicted by even the most optimistic analysts.” At least eight analysts rushing to change their estimates. This is not the first time they have been caught flat footed. “Market watchers were caught off guard earlier in the year as well, when the yuan confounded expectations by strengthening in the first quarter.”
Tags: Analysts, Blindsided, China, Confounded, Currency, Exchange rate, Expectations, Forecasters, Gain, Yuan
Reuters (April 27)
For “the first time since March 2008 the BOJ used the word ‘expansion’ to describe the state of the economy, signaling its conviction that the recovery was gaining momentum.” Still, some “analysts doubt inflation will accelerate as quickly as the BOJ projects, with slow wage growth keeping households from boosting spending.”
Tags: Analysts, BOJ, Economy, Expansion, Household spending, Inflation, Momentum, Recovery, Wage growth
