Financial Times (February 7)
The Bank of England (BoE) “has halved its 2025 growth estimate and cut interest rates… as it contends with a stagnant UK economy and an increasingly uncertain international environment.” In November, the BoE expected annual economic growth of 1.5%. Now it expects growth of just 0.75%, with higher unemployment and rising inflation. The new forecasts “will stoke fears of stagflation” and the Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to cut benchmark rates from 4.75% to 4.5%.
Tags: 2025, Benchmark, BOE, Economic growth, Environment, Forecasts, Halved, Inflation, Interest rates, MPC, Stagflation, Stagnant, UK, Uncertain, Unemployment
South China Morning Post (January 5)
“More than 30,000 car dealers in mainland China are facing another bleak year in 2025, with many turning from profit-generators into corporate failures in two years under a debilitating price war and an e-commerce onslaught.” Amid the switch to EVs, price wars “resulted in 177.6 billion yuan (US$24.3 billion) of losses between January and November” with the “financial squeeze” blamed for the closure of approximately 4,000 dealerships.
Tags: 2025, Bleak, Cars, China, Closure, Corporate failures, Dealerships, Debilitating, E-commerce, EV, Financial squeeze, Losses, Price war, Profit-generators
Market Watch (December 31)
“After a big run-up during the first half of 2024, crude-oil prices have mostly drifted lower over the past six months.” Signs of life began to emerge toward the end of 2024. “Gains for the commodity during the fourth quarter were the strongest since the first three months of 2024, which some analysts interpreted as a sign that prices could move even higher in 2025.”
Tags: 2024, 2025, Analysts, Commodity, Crude-oil prices, Drifted, Gains, Higher, Lower, Q1, Q4, Run-up
IPE Real Assets (December Issue)
“There is now a virtual universal consensus amongst economists. The US has successfully navigated a soft landing and its growth outlook is the brightest of all the G7 economies. In December, the OECD published a forecast of 2.4% GDP growth for the US in 2025, versus 1.3% for the eurozone and just 0.7% for Germany. Some even suggest it is an underestimate.”
Tags: 2025, Consensus, Economists, eurozone, Forecast, G7 economies, GDP growth, Germany, Growth outlook, Navigated, OECD, Soft landing, U.S., Underestimate
Fortune (November 17)
“For investors who’ve enjoyed the S&P 500 Index’s more than 50% jump since the start of 2023, the best hope for keeping the market rolling into 2025 and beyond may be Trump’s fear of doing anything to damage a rally.” Many of Trump’s campaign promises weren’t exactly “investor-friendly,” with some considered market anathema. Still, “Wall Street doesn’t believe Trump will tolerate a declining stock market, even if it’s caused by one of his own proposals.”
Tags: 2023, 2025, 50% jump, Anathema, Campaign promises, Damage, Fear, Hope, Investors, Rally, S&P 500, Stock market, Trump, Wall Street
Financial Times (October 22)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that “greater global protectionism will endanger the world’s growth outlook… as a possible Donald Trump victory in next month’s US election raises the prospect of sharp tariff increases.” The IMF’s World Economic Outlook warns that “if higher tariffs hit a ‘sizeable swath’ of world trade by mid-2025, it would wipe 0.8 per cent from economic output next year and 1.3 per cent in 2026.” If, however, widespread tit-for-tat measures ensue, the results could be considerably more destructive.
Tags: 2025, Economic output, Election, Endanger, Global protectionism, Growth outlook, IMF, Tariffs, Tit-for-tat, Trump, U.S., Victory, Warned, World trade
Forbes (September 20)
“Dalio hasn’t fled China. But the fact that the founder of the globe’s biggest hedge fund is raising warning flags matters. Not just because he’s the biggest of the big money, but because his pivot comes at a moment of maximum paranoia about China’s trajectory into 2025. This includes deflationary forces of the kind with which Tokyo is still grappling 30 years on.”
Tags: 2025, China, Dalio, Deflationary forces, Fled, Grappling, Hedge-fund, Maximum paranoia, Pivot, Tokyo, Trajectory, Warning flags
New York Times (August 30)
“The world is well stocked with oil…. Demand continues to grow, but production seems likely to keep pace.” This is one reason “the market seems surprisingly calm” given “the degree of political turmoil not only in Libya but in the Middle East.” The other reason is China. After accounting for “roughly half of consumption increases in the last two decades,” China is no longer driving consumption. The nation’s shift to EVs could even “lead to drops in demand there for diesel this year and for gasoline in 2025.”
Tags: 2025, Calm, China, Consumption, Demand, Diesel, EVs, Gasoline, Libya, Middle East, Oil, Political turmoil, Production, Well stocked, World
Bloomberg (April 8)
“Almost $1.5 trillion of US commercial real estate debt comes due for repayment before the end of 2025. The big question facing those borrowers is who’s going to lend to them?” Morgan Stanley has estimated “office and retail property valuations could fall as much as 40% from peak to trough, increasing the risk of defaults.” Regional banks are now skittish about lending and “the wall of debt is set to get worse before it gets better.”
Tags: $1.5 trillion, 2025, Borrowers, Commercial real estate, Debt, Defaults, Morgan Stanley, Office, Peak, Regional banks, Repayment, Risk, Skittish, Trough, U.S., Valuations
BBC (November 3)
“The Bank of England has warned the UK is facing its longest recession since records began, as it raised interest rates by the most in 33 years,” indicating that “the UK would face a ‘very challenging’ two-year slump with unemployment nearly doubling by 2025.” The BoE’s forecast paints “a picture of a painful economic period, with the UK performing worse than the US and the Eurozone.”
Tags: 2025, BOE, Challenging, Doubling, Forecast, Interest rates, Longest, Painful, Recession, Records, Slump, U.S., UK, Unemployment, Warned, Worse
