Fortune (April 27)
“The Iran conflict has confirmed a transformation in the economics of warfare toward cheap, mass-produced weapons, forcing a wholesale rethinking of military procurement.” Iran’s strategy “is the opposite of the West’s model of precision lethality.” It deliberately embraces mass losses because “even the most advanced defenses can be overwhelmed with sufficient volume” and “cost asymmetry” places tremendous burden on the enemy. In this case, “cost asymmetry is worsened by severe production and supply-chain constraints.” The U.S. has burned through 50% of its THAAD interceptors, with the next delivery of THAAD interceptors not expected until April 2027.
Tags: Cheap, Conflict, Cost asymmetry, Economics, Iran, Mass losses, Mass-produced, Military procurement, Precision lethality, Production, Rethinking, Supply-chain constraints, THAAD interceptors, Transformation, U.S., Volume, Warfare, Weapons
Bloomberg (April 25)
“The Strait of Hormuz oil shock has yet to crash demand as the rich world borrows from its stocks and pays up to secure supply. Traders are now sounding the alarm that a harsh adjustment is coming.” The IEA believes “global oil demand is on track to slump the most in five years this month.” Things will surely get worse. “A billion barrels of supply loss is already all-but guaranteed — more than double the emergency inventories that governments released” since the conflict began. “With a stalemate between US President Donald Trump and his Iranian adversaries dragging on, the impact is increasingly shifting west — and to products that are central to consumers’ everyday lives.”
Tags: Adversaries, Alarm, Billion barrels, Conflict, Crash, Demand, Emergency inventories, Harsh, IEA, Impact, Iran, Oil shock, Rich world, Slump, Stalemate, Strait of Hormuz, Supply, Traders, Trump
Wall Street Journal (April 23)
“The conflict with Iran has entered a damaging new phase—a crippling limbo between war and peace that leaves the Strait of Hormuz closed and the prospect of escalation looming.” The explosions have stopped, “but the battle for control of the strait, one of the most important conduits of global commerce, is raging, leaving commodity traders on edge and helping push international oil prices above $100 a barrel on Wednesday.”
Tags: Battle, Commodity traders, Conflict, Crippling, Damaging, Escalation, Global commerce, Iran, Limbo, Looming, Oil prices, Peace, Raging, Strait of Hormuz, War
South China Morning Post (April 20)
A “Hormuz moment” might signal the “decline of US dominance.” Citic Securities analysts are comparing the unfolding situation in Iran to the “Suez moment,” when Great Britain “lost control of the Suez Canal along with its global superpower status.” On Saturday, the analysts wrote “that a similarly consequential ‘Hormuz moment’ could be a watershed for America’s global supremacy.” In fact, Citic posits “the global order may have already undergone subtle but significant changes.”
Tags: Analysts, Citic Securities, Consequential, Control, Decline, Dominance, Hormuz moment, Iran, Suez Canal, Superpower status, Supremacy, U.S., UK, Unfolding, Watershed
Financial Times (April 16)
“Iran is America’s Suez crisis — and just as ridiculous. The parallels with Britain’s disastrous Middle East adventure in the 1950s are impossible to resist.”
Tags: 1950s, Adventure, Disastrous, Iran, Middle East, Parallels, Ridiculous, Suez crisis, U.S., UK
OilPrice.com (April 12)
The Iran “crisis has thrown the precarity of the current global energy trade into sharp relief,” accelerating shifts in energy policy. That shift is expected to include “expanded clean energy production capacity” and greatly benefit China. Chinese companies are “incredibly well positioned to continue to consolidate their dominance in global markets, as they are by far the cheapest producer and most accessible trade partner for many nations that have been left in the lurch by the effective blockade of Hormuz.”
Tags: Accelerating, Accessible, Blockade, Capacity, Cheapest, China, Clean energy, Consolidate, Crisis, Dominance, Global markets, Hormuz, Iran, Policy, Precarity, Producer, Shifts, Trade, Trade partner
Financial Times (April 9)
“Among the many consequences of the stand-off in the Strait of Hormuz, it seems that we may look back on this as the week in which one of America’s most powerful geopolitical tools was shown to be a weakened stick. Threatening to limit access to the global dollar system now seems less fearsome.” US Treasury sanctions cover the entire country of Iran. “But not only does this not appear to have prevented it from selling oil while at war with the US, it has not seemed to stop it from charging ransom fees to international shipping seeking to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Tags: Consequences, Fearsome, Geopolitical tools, Global dollar system, Iran, Oil, Ransom fees, Sanctions, Stand-off, Strait of Hormuz, Threatening, Treasury, U.S., Weakened
Barron’s (March 26)
“The war in Iran and consequent blockage of the Strait of Hormuz offer a stark reminder of a different geopolitical risk, one lurking in tech-heavy global portfolios that are betting on artificial intelligence: Taiwan.” 75% of global foundry revenue originates in the island nation. “Investors often put Taiwan in the ‘too big to fail’ bucket, meaning China wouldn’t dare attack anytime soon because of the cascading ramifications…. But the far-reaching ripples from Iran’s attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, itself once thought to be in the unlikely bucket, is a reminder of the risks to global chokeholds and the potential spillover from geopolitical conflict.”
Tags: AI, Attack, Cascading, China, Foundry, Geopolitical risk, Global chokeholds, Hormuz, Investors, Iran, Ramifications, Revenue, Spillover, Taiwan, War
Fortune (March 23)
“The great toilet paper panic is back as Japan starts stockpiling. As the U.S.-Israeli-Iran conflict rattles oil markets, Japanese consumers are stockpiling toilet paper—a product with no connection to the disruptions whatsoever, but that has caused enough problems for the country that the Japanese government has urged citizens to stop buying ahead of time.”
Tags: Citizens, Conflict, Consumers, Disruptions, Government, Iran, Israeli, Japan, Oil markets, Panic, Problems, Rattles, Stockpiling, Toilet paper, U.S.
New York Times (March 21)
“From his first announcement of the attack on Iran on Feb. 28, President Trump has issued a stream of falsehoods about the war.” It’s well documented that “lying is standard behavior for Mr. Trump,” but “lying about war is uniquely corrosive. When a president signals that the truth does not matter in wartime, he …. makes it harder to win by hiding the realities of conflict and by making allies wary of joining the fight. Ultimately, he undermines American values and interests.”
Tags: Allies, Attack, Conflict, Corrosive, Documented, Falsehoods, Iran, Lying, Realities, Signals, Standard behavior, Trump, Truth, Undermines, Values, War, Wartime, Wary
